“Being left-handed is a neurotic choice made by antisocial individuals".- Abram Blau
Having found themselves bereft of lefties in the projected starting rotation for 2004, some talk has turned recently to whether, because of this, the New York Yankees find themselves at a disadvantage. It’s no secret that the current configuration of Yankee Stadium lends itself to left-handed pull hitters, and that Andy Pettitte in particular has been an anchor of the rotation during New York’s most recent run of success. Presumably that’s because starters of his ilk limit the effectiveness of left-handed batters.
Naturally, this state of affairs has caused a few to throw their hands up in dismay. “You can’t have a rotation without a lefty in
that ballpark!” they cry, and start to comb the free agent lists for a Ron Villone or a . . . well, whatever scraps are left. Others contend that the absence of a southpaw starter isn’t in itself a crisis (given the recent hysteria over the Yankees, perhaps I ought to say “another crisis”). Let’s take a closer look.
Here’s an easy one to start off with: Taking Yankee rotations over the past decade, including only pitchers who started at least ten games in a season, we find this split:
Wins Losses W/L % ERA
LHP 306 182 0.627 4.26
RHP 350 219 0.615 4.14
Hardly conclusive, I think you’ll agree. It’s certainly true that the Yankees haven’t had any rotation without a left-handed pitcher during that timespan, and that historically New York has tended to include at least one southpaw.
Delving deeper, in the past 10 years there’s been just a single year in which the Yankees only had
one left-hander start at least ten games. That year was 1999, when New York won 98 games and – oh, yes, won the World Series. For the record, Pettitte was obviously the lefty in question, and went 14-11 with a 4.70 ERA and a WHIP of 1.59. In fact, using ERA+, Pettitte was below league average in 1999 for the only time in his career to date. If Andy made the difference between the Yankees winning and losing the World Series, then he did it in a remarkably subtle manner.
But, of course, when fans complain about the Yankees no longer having a lefty starter, Pettitte is the starter who first springs to mind. It’s certainly no surprise to learn that Pettitte benefitted from pitching half his games in Yankee Stadium; take a look at his splits over the last three years:
Home Away
W L ERA WHIP W L ERA WHIP
2001 10 3 3.16 1.19 5 7 4.97 1.47
2002 8 2 3.48 1.14 5 3 3.07 1.47
2003 10 4 3.78 1.22 11 4 4.24 1.43
Not only fairly conclusive, but also pretty consistent. Pettitte’s 2002 season was shortened by injury, and his WHIP away from home that year seems to suggest that his lower ERA may be anomalous.
So it seems clear that Andy Pettitte leaving Yankee Stadium will hurt both him and his old team (ignoring relative defensive support for the moment). Minute Maid created about 4% more runs than average in 2003; Yankee Stadium around 2% less, plus the configuration of the parks will most likely hurt Pettitte when throwing to righties. In any case, we haven’t yet proven the general case for lefthanders who aren’t lucky enough to be Andy Pettitte. Looking at the non-Pettitte lefties over the last few years:
Home Away
W L ERA WHIP W L ERA WHIP
Wells ('02) 8 4 3.83 1.13 11 3 3.69 1.33
Wells ('03) 8 5 4.89 1.33 7 2 3.36 1.12
Lilly ('01) 3 3 4.68 1.33 2 3 6.50 1.68
Lilly ('02)* 1 3 4.95 1.43 4 4 2.13 0.83
* No data for Randy Keisler (2003)
Does this tell us anything? Clearly, David Wells did not benefit from Yankee Stadium to any significant degree – his ERA was lower away from home in both 2002 and 2003. While his WHIP was better at home in 2002, this was partly due to walks rather than hits allowed, which one would presume should be affected less by park factors.
Lilly’s probably a result of small sample size – he started only 18 games in Yankee Stadium in 2001-2, and although he was traded to Oakland in 2002, he pitched only three games in the Coliseum. In any case, from the stats above there’s certainly no definitive case to be made that either pitcher benefitted greatly from their home park.
What’s the difference? Calling up the tendencies of Wells and Pettitte over the last three years, we’ll find out if we can detect why one enjoyed the Bronx, and one did not:
OBP/OPS vs. L OBP/OPS vs. R K/9 GB/FB
Pettitte
2001 .251/.631 .289/.734 7.36 1.50
2002 .255/.663 .276/.685 6.48 1.34
2003 .321/.783 .254/.687 7.78 1.76
3yr Avg .276/.692 .273/.702 7.21 1.53
Wells
2001 .206/.584 .328/.855 5.28 1.12
2002 .213/.616 .274/.734 5.98 1.08
2003 .274/.778 .290/.737 4.27 1.22
3yr Avg .231/.659 .297/.775 5.18 1.14
I find these results highly surprising. For a start, Wells was noticeably better against left-handers than right-handers, yet from our previous results, we’ve noted that he had less success at the Stadium than away from it. In fact, in 2001 with Chicago, he posted better results against lefties than he did throwing half his starts in New York the subsequent years. A statistical quirk, perhaps, but certainly anti-intuitive.
Furthermore, you might assume that the major advantage for left-handed starters in Yankee Stadium would be suppressing home runs against right-handers, with the spacious left field expanses patrolled variously by Hideki Matsui, Rondell White, Shane Spencer, and (sigh) Chuck Knoblauch over the last three years. However, the statistics above clearly show that Wells is consistently more of a flyball pitcher than Pettitte – yet did not seem to gain this advantage when he pitched at home.
What is going on here? It’s certainly worth noting that this is a very small sample on which to base any conclusions. With only two pitchers’ data to work from, I’ve been unable to construct as thorough a case as I would like. But I hope this article demonstrates:
- That Andy Pettitte was certainly better at home, and that New York will most likely miss him.
- That’s it’s not immediately obvious that any old left-handed starter would gain the same advantage as Pettitte from pitching in the Bronx.
- there’s no quick answer as to which pitchers will enjoy Yankee Stadium more than others.
I hope to develop point 3 in the future – a quick look at Clemens, for instance, suggests that his home/away splits in 2002/3 reversed themselves completely. Mussina’s splits did the same, but the other way. It might be argued that the effect of a lefty in the rotation makes the
whole rotation better by giving opposing batters a change of angle every few games – in other words, individual success becomes less relevant, and group results more so. However, that’s a much harder case to prove, and I’m tired.
Is there any clear relationship between pitching style and love of Yankee Stadium? I certainly can’t provide a definitive answer based on this first foray into the topic. But I plan on returning to this issue in the near future, so try to restrain your enthusiasm, and stay tuned.
Note – the opening quote does not reflect the opinions of NYYFans.com, Ben Thacker, or anyone with an ounce of sense. I just thought that Blau’s 1940 theory, in an article partly concerned with David Wells, was an interesting counterpoint.
Ben will be contributing statistical analysis and other kinds of stories for NYYFans.com
