Dave Pinto over at Baseball Musings just posted his Probabilistic Model of Range for Shortstops in the 2007 season. This year Dave worked out the models both by team and by individual. I’ve listed his findings below.

(By the by, you should bookmark baseballmusings.com, along with waswatching.com, and check them at least daily.)

Over the past few years, there have been a number of defensive metrics churned out by various sabermetricians. Although they may differ in methodology in regards to how the arrive at their conclusions, the conclusions are always the same when it comes to Derek Jeter.

Derek Jeter is a very bad defensive shortstop.

This is not new information. At least it should not be to anyone who has a passing interest in baseball. To be honest, I feel the need to point this out at least twice a year. What I find so curious is that many of Jeter’s defensive supporters actually think he is a good shortstop.

For a truly balanced study of Derek Jeter’s defensive work, see Bill James’ article in John Dewan’s The Fielding Bible, (February 2006). James measures things a myriad of different ways in an attempt to find any objective evidence that Jeter may be better then reports indicate. James’ conclusion is “Giving him every possible break on the unknowns, he is still going to emerge as a below-average defensive shortstop.”

James actually was going out of his way to be nice in that article, but the plain fact is Jeter has never been very good defensively, and he is actually getting worse.

I will say this again just so his fanboys won’t think I am engaging in gratuitous Jeter bashing:

Derek Jeter is a hall of fame offensive player. He could end up over 3,500 hits in his career. He is a great and loyal Yankee. He’s a smart player and an excellent hitter in the 2 hole. Yes. Yes. Yes.

But the point is the Yanks must entertain the idea of moving Jeter to another position. I suggest first base, but he could also handle the outfield or even 3B.

Moving off shortstop is not a death sentence, nor is it anything to be embarrassed about. Ernie Banks did it, so did Cal Ripken and Robin Yount.

In the past I knew there would be no chance that Torre would suggest such a move. And I don’t think there is a much of a chance now either.

In my nightly dreams, I envision Joe Girardi and Mike Fishman marching into Brian Cashman’s office and showing him all the objective evidence that Jeter is a horrible shortstop. Of course, the pale light of day always creeps through my window, and I wake up still to find that Jeter is the shortstop on the team that I root for.

Here are Dave Pinto’s shortstop ratings by team, and then by individual. The data speaks for itself.

Team Shortstop PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 
		In		Predicted		Predicted 
Team		Play	Outs	Outs		DER 	DER 		Ratio

Rockies		4599	657	602.67		0.143	0.131		109.01
Twins		4384	556	523.57		0.127	0.119		106.19
Dodgers		4310	556	526.50		0.129	0.122		105.60
Royals		4528	543	514.33		0.120	0.114		105.57
Blue Jays	4349	567	544.69		0.130	0.125		104.09
Phillies	4505	531	516.45		0.118	0.115		102.82
Indians		4548	571	558.76		0.126	0.123		102.19
Pirates		4608	588	575.51		0.128	0.125		102.17
Red Sox		4226	500	492.12		0.118	0.116		101.60
Giants		4467	592	584.51		0.133	0.131		101.28
Diamondbacks	4351	493	488.99		0.113	0.112		100.82
Brewers		4392	501	497.76		0.114	0.113		100.65
Angels		4325	502	498.77		0.116	0.115		100.65
Marlins		4491	508	506.53		0.113	0.113		100.29
Mariners	4535	515	514.50		0.114	0.113		100.10
Orioles		4403	505	506.89		0.115	0.115		99.63
Astros		4530	561	563.85		0.124	0.124		99.49
Braves		4404	516	520.04		0.117	0.118		99.22
Cardinals	4587	539	544.84		0.118	0.119		98.93
Reds		4533	496	502.70		0.109	0.111		98.67
Athletics	4499	531	538.40		0.118	0.120		98.62
Padres		4476	536	544.49		0.120	0.122		98.44
Mets		4362	506	518.72		0.116	0.119		97.55
Cubs		4177	481	495.42		0.115	0.119		97.09
White Sox	4545	563	580.23		0.124	0.128		97.03
Tigers		4486	517	536.95		0.115	0.120		96.28
Rangers		4518	531	556.38		0.118	0.123		95.44
Devil Rays	4378	441	466.20		0.101	0.106		94.59
Nationals	4591	532	566.26		0.116	0.123		93.95
Yankees		4511	478	516.85		0.106	0.115		92.48

						


Individual Shortstop PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 
		In		Predicted		Predicted 
Team		Play	Outs	Outs		DER 	DER 		Ratio
Troy Tulowitzki	4294	615	564.54	        0.143	0.131		108.94
Tony F Pena	4010	480	449.44	        0.120	0.112		106.80
Rafael Furcal	3574	473	445.28	        0.132	0.125		106.23
John McDonald	2389	311	294.27	        0.130	0.123		105.69
Jason Bartlett	3631	466	443.58	        0.128	0.122		105.05
Jimmy Rollins	4447	528	511.62	        0.119	0.115		103.20
Jack Wilson	3657	470	457.15	        0.129	0.125		102.81
Yunel Escobar	1116	135	131.47	        0.121	0.118		102.69
Jhonny Peralta	4206	512	502.37	        0.122	0.119		101.92
Omar Vizquel	3739	504	497.76	        0.135	0.133		101.25
Julio Lugo	3592	431	426.14	        0.120	0.119		101.14
Adam Everett	1631	217	214.61	        0.133	0.132		101.12
Orlando Cabrera	3997	462	456.91	        0.116	0.114		101.11
Alex Gonzalez	2728	306	306.06	        0.112	0.112		99.98
J.J. Hardy	3873	442	442.35	        0.114	0.114		99.92
Cesar Izturis	1904	216	216.36	        0.113	0.114		99.83
Bobby Crosby	2524	313	313.77	        0.124	0.124		99.75
Stephen Drew	3877	434	435.25	        0.112	0.112		99.71
Hanley Ramirez	4054	460	462.96	        0.113	0.114		99.36
Ryan Theriot	2494	301	303.06	        0.121	0.122		99.32
Khalil Greene	4206	504	507.64	        0.120	0.121		99.28
Mark Loretta	1537	177	178.28	        0.115	0.116		99.28
Y. Betancourt	4103	464	467.60	        0.113	0.114		99.23
Edgar Renteria	3067	361	365.13	        0.118	0.119		98.87
Eric Bruntlett	1075	131	132.81	        0.122	0.124		98.63
Royce Clayton	1538	200	202.77	        0.130	0.132		98.63
Marco Scutaro	1064	122	124.14	        0.115	0.117		98.28
Juan Uribe	4113	513	524.43	        0.125	0.128		97.82
Jose Reyes	4295	500	511.97	        0.116	0.119		97.66
David Eckstein	3002	349	357.57	        0.116	0.119		97.60
Miguel Tejada	3317	363	373.46	        0.109	0.113		97.20
Jeff Keppinger	1209	130	135.67	        0.108	0.112		95.82
Carlos Guillen	3361	389	408.05	        0.116	0.121		95.33
Felipe Lopez	2949	359	377.76	        0.122	0.128		95.03
Michael Young	4083	476	504.85	        0.117	0.124		94.29
Josh Wilson	1340	141	151.37	        0.105	0.113		93.15
Brendan Harris	2336	234	253.12	        0.100	0.108		92.45
Derek Jeter	4117	421	461.63	        0.102	0.112		91.20
Cristian Guzman	1189	117	130.96	        0.098	0.110		89.34